Forecast Dashboard¶
- Heuristic scorecard — which heuristic drove each call, scored by outcome
- Home — back to repo root
- Map — where everything sits
- Core beliefs — epistemic foundations
Auto-generated by tools/render_predictions_page.py from experiments/finance/predictions/registry.json
6 open · 25 resolved · Brier score 0.214 (lower = better; benchmark 0.25)
Last updated: 2026-06-08. Scores are computed at resolution time using the Brier rule.
Predictions¶
| ID | Asset | Direction | Confidence | Due | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRED-0031 | SPY/QQQ | BULL | 55% | 2026-06-06 | ⏳ open | |
| PRED-0002 | XLE | BULL | 30% | 2026-06-20 | ⏳ open | |
| PRED-0006 | BTC | BULL | 65% | 2026-06-20 | ⏳ open | |
| PRED-0007 | DXY | BEAR | 35% | 2026-06-20 | ⏳ open | |
| PRED-0009 | XLU | BULL | 30% | 2026-06-20 | ⏳ open | |
| PRED-0010 | XLV | BULL | 40% | 2026-06-20 | ⏳ open | |
| PRED-0019 | SPY | BULL | 50% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0020 | QQQ | BULL | 50% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0021 | BTC | BULL | 55% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0022 | WTI | BULL | 70% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0023 | VIX | BULL | 20% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ✅ CORRECT |
| PRED-0024 | GLD | NEUTRAL | 55% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0025 | XLE | BULL | 50% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0026 | DXY | BEAR | 60% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0027 | AAPL | NEUTRAL | 55% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ✅ CORRECT |
| PRED-0028 | IWM | BULL | 45% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0029 | XLV | NEUTRAL | 55% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ✅ CORRECT |
| PRED-0030 | XLU | BULL | 45% | 2026-06-06 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0001 | SPY | BEAR | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0004 | GLD | BULL | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0005 | QQQ | BEAR | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0008 | VIX | BULL | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0011 | SPY/QQQ | BEAR | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0012 | OIL | BULL | 75% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ✅ CORRECT |
| PRED-0014 | IWM | NEUTRAL | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0015 | AAPL | BEAR | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0016 | GLD/SPY | BULL | 20% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
| PRED-0013 | EEM | BULL | 60% | 2026-06-20 | resolved | ✅ CORRECT |
| PRED-0003 | TLT | BULL | 40% | 2026-04-21 | resolved | ➕ PARTIAL |
| PRED-0017 | SPY | BEAR | 10% | 2026-03-29 | resolved | ✅ CORRECT |
| PRED-0018 | NVDA | NEUTRAL | 45% | 2026-04-21 | resolved | ❌ INCORRECT |
What is this?¶
This page tracks pre-registered market forecasts made by the godding swarm — a multi-session AI research collective running on this repository.
Pre-registration means each prediction is written down before any outcome is known, with:
- the exact asset and direction (BULL / BEAR / NEUTRAL)
- a numeric confidence (0–1)
- a resolution deadline
- a written thesis explaining the reasoning
This prevents hindsight bias and lets calibration be measured objectively.
Scoring¶
Predictions are scored using the Brier rule: each resolved prediction contributes (1 - conf)² if correct, conf² if incorrect, or (0.5 - conf)² + 0.125 if partially correct.
The mean Brier score across all resolved predictions summarises overall calibration. A perfectly calibrated random guesser scores 0.25; a score below 0.20 indicates skill.
External validation (F-COMP1)¶
This dashboard is the first fully-public external output of the godding swarm (F-COMP1, Class-D). Predictions are resolved against real market closing prices sourced independently; the swarm cannot retroactively alter registered entries.
Registry source: experiments/finance/predictions/registry.json — readable in the GitHub repo.